The Upside of Uncertainty: A Guide for Finding Possibility in the Unknown
Nathan Furr and Susannah Harmon Furr
Harvard Business Review Press (July 2022)

“The single biggest predictor of executive success is how you deal with uncertainty.” Sam Yagan

Nathan Furr and Susannah Harmon Furr agree with Yagan and I agree with all three of them. The Chinese character for the word “crisis” (危机) has two meanings: peril and opportunity. There is always uncertainty when responding to a crisis, especially when the response is doing nothing.

As the Furrs explain, they offer this book “as a guide to help readers discover and hold on to the upside of uncertainty — all the possibilities that come to those who learn to ride its waves. If we can tolerate uncertainty, and even pursue scenarios in spite of it, we can develop an uncertainty ability — the will to navigate the unknowns both planned (such as starting a new venture or leaving a job) and unplanned (such as losing a job, experiencing a health crisis, or going through a relationship breakdown).”

The business world today is more volatile, more uncertain, more complex, and more ambiguous than at any prior time that I can remember. In this book, the Furrs examine a framework within which to gather the knowledge and master the skills their readers need to develop “a healthy relationship with uncertainty, increasing their [begin italics] possibility quotient [end italics], or the likelihood that they see and seize new opportunities.”

Here are the tools needed to reframe one’s perspectives on uncertainty:

o Framing: Shift from the fear of loss to the anticipation of gain (See Pages 15-19)
o Reverse Insurance: People need uncertainty such as surprise to stimulate and spontaneity to innovate (21-25)
o Frontiers: Where we do our most creative work while challenging limits (27-31)
o Adjacent Possible: Infinite options for reinvention of “realities” that may be self-limiting (33-39 and 118-119)
o Infinite Game: Always question imposed, assumed boundaries, rules, the game itself, and how it’s played (41-48)
o Stories: Who we are, what we do, and how well we do it (49-55) Daily documentation of efforts to achieve memorable excellence
o Regret Minimization: what I view as efforts to live “a wince-free life” (57-62)
o Aplomb/Doubting Self-Doubt: Eliminating or at least minimizing doubt that “there’s a better way”(63-67)
o “Uncertainty Manifesto”: reaffirmation of — and recommitment to — resilience when uncertainty threatens faith in success (69-75).

Those who develop these skills will be much better prepared to recognize, evaluate, and then pursue the most interesting possibilities: “the ones we daydream about, the ones we write about, the ones that we talk about late into the night and that make our hearts ache — those we find only after facing unc certainty. Recall the achievements you are most proud of, the commitments you made that feel right, the leaps into the dark that changed the course of your life. They all involved uncertainty.”

I commend the Furrs on their brilliant use of reader-friendly devices such as “Reflection and Practice,” a set of 2-10 key points or primers within each chapter. As James O’Toole suggests in his business classic, Leading Change (1995), the strongest resistance to change initiatives tends to be cultural in nature, the result of what he so aptly characterizes as “the ideology of comfort and the tyranny of custom.” The primary purpose of the material in each “Reflection and Practice” section is to help readers to avoid or overcome their own dependence on comfort and custom.

Obviously, no brief commentary such as mine can possibly do full justice to the invaluable information, insights, and counsel that Nathan Furr and Susannah Harmon Furr provide in this volume. However, I hope I have at least indicated why I think so highly of them and of their work. I presume to add two points of my own. First, as indicated earlier, the Chinese word “crisis” consists of two characters that have separate meanings: “peril” and “opportunity.” I mention this again because the meaning of the word “uncertainty” can also be viewed in two quite different ways: as desirable or undesirable, positive or negative, etc. The Furrs make a convincing case for the potential value and benefits of uncertainty. Yes, it can be a troublemaker in certain situations but, more often than not, it can stimulate curiosity and motivate efforts to answer important questions and solve serious problems. In this context, I am again reminded of Voltaire’s advice that we cherish those who seek the truth but beware of those who find it.

My second point involves highlighting key passages while reading The Upside of Uncertainty as well as any other work of non-fiction that also helps to increase your personal growth and professional development. and keeping a lined notebook near at hand -Record comments, questions, page references, etc. as when interacting with the material in each “Reflection and Practice” section. These two simple tactics can facilitate, indeed expedite frequent review of material that is of greatest interest and value to you.

I congratulate Nathan Furr and Susannah Harmon Furr on The Upside of Uncertainty. It is a brilliant achievement. Bravo!