The Singularity Is Nearer: When We Merge with AI
Ray Kurzweil
Viking/An Imprint of Penguin Random House (June 2024)

We are “on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth.”

I recently re-read Vernon Vinge’s essay, “The Coming of Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era” (1993), in which he suggests that “the acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater than human intelligence. There are several means by which science may achieve this breakthrough (and this is another reason for having confidence that the event will occur):

“o There may be developed computers that are ‘awake’ and superhumanly intelligent. (To date, there has been much controversy as to whether we can create human equivalence in a machine. But if the answer is ‘yes, we can’, then there is little doubt that beings more intelligent can be constructed shortly thereafter.)

“o Large computer networks (and their associated users) may ‘wake up’ as a superhumanly intelligent entity.

“o Computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent.

“o Biological science may provide means to improve natural human intellect.”

In The Singularity Is Near (2005), Ray Kurzweil predicts that “convergent, exponential technological trends” are “leading to a transition that would be ‘utterly transformative’ for  humanity.” I was again reminded of that prediction  as I began to read The Singularity Is Nearer in which Kurzweil explains how and why humanity’s “Mellenia-long march toward the Singularity has become a sprint. In the introduction to The Singularity Is Near, I wrote that we were then ‘in the early stages of this transition.’ Now we are entering its culmination. That book was about glimpsing a distant horizon — this one is about the last miles along the path to reach it .”

In Chapter 1, Kurzweil points out that the evolution of intelligence works via an indirect sequence of other processes during these six periods:

First Epoch: The birth of the laws of physics and the chemistry they make possible
Second Epoch: Several billion years ago, life
Third Epoch: Animals described by DNA formed brains
Fourth Epoch: Animals (humans) used their higher-level cognitive ability, together with their thumbs, to translate thoughts into complex actions.

[Note: “Humans are now in the Fourth Epoch, with our technology already producing results that exceed what we can understand for some tasks.”]

Fifth Epoch: Humans will directly merge their biological cognition with the speed and power of digital technology. ‘This is brain-computer interfaces.’
The Sixth Epoch is where our intelligence spreads throughout the universe, turning ordinary matter into computronium, which is matter organized at the ultimate density of computation.'”

In or near the central business district in most major cities, there has been  a farmer’s market at which — at least until the COVID pandemic — some of the merchants offer fresh slices of fruit as samples of their wares. In that same spirit, I now provide a selection of excerpts from Kurzweil’s lively and eloquent narrative:

o On the reinvention of intelligence: “It will be a process 0f co-creation — evolving our minds to unlock deeper insight, and using these powers to produce transcendent new ideas for our future minds to explore. At last we will have access to our own source code, using AI capable of redesigning itself. Since this technology will let us merge with the superintelligence we are creating, we will be essentially remaking ourselves. Freed from the enclosure of our skulls, and processing on a substrate millions of times faster than biological tissue, our minds will be empowered to grow exponentially, ultimately expanding our intelligence millions-fold. This is the core of my definition of Singularity.” (Page 73)

o On reasonable expectations: “The promise of  the Singularity is to free us all from [various] limitations. For thousands of years, humans have gradually been gaining greater control over who we can become…Wider access to information lets us free our minds and form mental habits that physically rewire our brains…Imagine how much more we’ll be able to shape ourselves when we can program our brains directly.

“And so merging with superintelligent AI will be a worthy achievement, but it is a means to a higher level. Once our brains are backed up on a more advanced digital substrate, our self-modification powers can be fully realized. Our  behaviors can align with our values, and our lives will not be marred and cut short by the failings of our biology. Finally, humans can be truly responsible for who we are.” (109)

o On the future of jobs: “And so, even as technological change is rendering many jobs obsolete, those very same forces are opening up numerous new opportunities that fall outside the traditional model of ‘jobs.’ Although it is not without it limitations, the so-called gig  economy often allows people more flexibility, autonomy, and leisure time than previous options. Maximizing the quality of these opportunities is one strategy for how to help workers as automation trends accelerate and disrupt traditional workplaces.” (219)

o On proceeding in collaboration with AI: “Overall, we should be cautiously optimistic. While AI is creating new technical threats, it will also radically enhance our ability to deal with those threats. As for abuse, since these methods will enhance our intelligence regardless of our vaues, they can be used for both promise and peril. We should thus work toward  a world where the powers of AI are broadly distributed, so that its effects reflect the values of humanity as a whole.”  (285)

Because I am a non-scientist, I am especially grateful to Kurzweil for his ongoing contributions to knowledge leadership throughout the last 35 years. I do not fully understand all of the material provided in The Singularity Is Nearer but I do feel much better prepared to recognize the challenges in a world that is today much more volatile, more uncertain, more complex, and more ambiguous than at any prior time that I can recall. At age 88, I cannot actively pursue all the unique and abundant opportunities that the Singularity will create but now offer best wishes and warmest regards to those who can.

That said, I hope I am still alive and alert when Ray Kurzweil publishes The Singularity Is Here.