Hacking into humanity

Here is an excerpt from the transcript of an interview of Amy Webb by Raju Narisetti for the McKinsey Quarterly, published by McKinsey & Company. To read the complete article, check out others, learn more about the firm, and sign up for email alerts, please click here.

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In the next decade, Amy Webb predicts that synthetic biology will be as common as artificial intelligence.
In this edition of Author Talks, McKinsey Global Publishing’s Raju Narisetti chats with Amy Webb, a leading futurist and business adviser, about her new book, The Genesis Machine: Our Quest to Rewrite Life in the Age of Synthetic Biology (Hachette Book Group, February 2022), coauthored by microbiologist Andrew Hessel. Webb explores five hypothetical scenarios that demonstrate how DNA programming may trickle into all corners of life, from genetic selection to food production. An edited version of the conversation follows.
What exactly is this book about?
Andrew Hessel and I have written a new book called The Genesis Machine, which is about a new field of science that combines engineering, design, and computers with biology. These techniques allow us to engineer living cells. Ten years from now, we’re going to talk about synthetic biology, this new area of science, as having changed everything.Why is this the time to read about synthetic biology?There are three reasons that make this book particularly relevant right now. The first has to do with investment. SARS-CoV-2, which is the virus that causes COVID-19, acted as a catalyst for genetic sequencing—for synthesis. In effect, it broke us free of our existing mental models for what a virus was and how it spread, for pathogen detection, and new ways to inoculate people.That attracted significant investment. Some biotech veterans recently raised $3 billion to create a new company on the premise that the fundamental machinery of living cells can be reprogrammed. There’s a flood of capital being directed at synthetic biology right now, which means that in the next 24 to 36 months, we’re going to start to see this ecosystem really develop.This is going to have some important knock-on effects, on different industries—pharmaceuticals, obviously—and also healthcare. We’re also going to start seeing changes in agriculture, industrial materials, and even space, because we’ve now proven that it’s possible to reprogram the fundamental units of life.That’s going to catalyze innovation. It’s really important, as more of this investment comes in and more of these technologies are developed, that we too break our mental models for how we think about life and how life could evolve. That’s the first reason.

The second reason has to do with risks, and there’s a lot of them. In the book, we identify nine risks, and they aren’t insignificant. I just want to highlight a few because I think they’re really important.

In the future, the most worrying data security breaches could actually involve our DNA. This means that, in this biological era that we’re entering, it could be a major information security problem—there are easy ways to scrape somebody’s genetic code.

That could have widespread implications if that person is a politician or if that person is the CEO of a big company. Bio-cybersecurity is another important emerging problem on a much grander level. Another important risk is, we think that synthetic biology, because it promises so much, could actually lead to new geopolitical conflicts.

We think the next war could be a biological one, and we’re going to have to prepare for what’s coming. I’m not necessarily talking about biological weapons, but rather consolidating power and resources.

The third reason why it’s important right now to be thinking about all of this, and the reason that we wrote the book, actually has to do with solutions. It’s hard to get people to change.

We just saw at COP26, the big climate-change conference, that world leaders are just not going to act fast enough to mitigate the climate crisis, especially when what we’re asking countries to do is to stop contributing to their economy by scaling back some of their manufacturing or having to change it.

We’re going to have to develop alternatives. In this case, synthetic biology gives us optionality. There are other ways, in addition to reducing CO2 through regulation, to potentially solve this problem.

There are also other ways for us to grow our food. The reason that we wrote the book now is because we still have a little bit of time to sort through these questions. We’ve got ethical questions. We definitely have risks. There’s a lot of money flowing into this space, and, ultimately, we’re going to have to make personal choices going forward. We should do that when we’re informed, not under duress.

Why were you interested in this topic?

I was interested in health for a variety of different reasons, but one of those reasons had to do with a string of miscarriages that I had. It just seemed strange to me that in this age of artificial intelligence, birth and getting pregnant was really left up to happenstance and hope. I got really interested in this and started doing additional research.

I heard Andrew’s name. He’s a microbiologist. Turns out we had a friend in common who introduced us. Together, we realized that we could take this book that I had in progress on synthetic biology but make a much deeper exploration of it and unlock some of our perspectives and research for a much wider community.

What if?

In this book we created five scenarios as a way of helping make all of this research and all of this information much more real to people, so that they could envision what the future could look like, and so that it related back to them. These scenarios, which are written a little bit like speculative fiction, are, in fact, rooted in research, and models, and data, and science.

[Here are the first two of five scenarios.]

Scenario one: Creating your bespoke child

The first scenario has to do with a fertility center set in the future. We started with a prompt: How could synthetic biology influence how we create children in the future?

Some of the questions we had included things like “If you could select the genes for your offspring, what would you select? What would you not select? And why? What would the reasons for that be? If you selected a few things, could that create an imbalance in another place? What would that process even look like? What would an actual trip to a futuristic fertility center be like?”

This first scenario is intended to give you a very visceral understanding of how this technology could be applied to completely change how we think of [parenthood] and what the construct of a family looks like.

Scenario two: Canceling aging

I’m a big Chicago Cubs fan. They won the 2016 World Series with David Ross, who’s a catcher who was born around the same time that I was, and whose knees should absolutely not have been working during the Series.

All of this got me thinking. As much as I would love for that 2016 World Series–winning Chicago Cubs team to play forever, what would it be like if they actually could play for a very long period of time?

That’s where we started, but that got us thinking: If people are able to live much longer, much healthier lives, how does that change the future of work? How does that change the relationship between a CEO and an executive team, or a CEO and a board of directors? How does that start to shape what a board of directors might be doing? If you’re a family company, how does that shift the decisions that you make? What does succession planning look like in a world in which people can live much longer than they do today?

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Here is a direct link to the complete article.

Amy Webb is the CEO of the Future Today Institute, a management consulting firm. Raju Narisetti is the leader of McKinsey Global Publishing and is based in McKinsey’s New York office.

Comments and opinions expressed by interviewees are their own and do not represent or reflect the opinions, policies, or positions of McKinsey & Company or have its endorsement.

 

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