Here is a brief portion from material on Donald Sull‘s website. To check out a wealth of resources, please click here.

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In terms of knowing whether an opportunity is as golden as it seems, below are some questions that you can ask yourself. Opportunities are by their nature uncertain, so there is no cookie-cutter approach that offers a foolproof guarentee, but based on my research and work with managers, the following questions can help you gain confidence that an apparent opportunity is or isn’t golden.

• What is the anomaly? Anomalies signal discrepancies between a manager’s mental model and the realities of a situation in flux, and can serve as leading indicators of an emerging golden opportunity. Managers who notice and interrogate anomalies before competitors can seize opportunities before rivals. Recall, for example, Zong’s surprise that wealthy parents with well-stocked larders worried about malnutrition. Ask yourself, what is surprising here? What should work that doesn’t? What shouldn’t work but does? What customer pain could be solved but isn’t? Managers can generally point to a specific “a-ha” moment when they noticed the incongruity that alerted them a golden opportunity.

• Why does the anomaly exist? After spotting an anomaly, its important to gather first hand information until you understand its sources. Not every anomaly signals an opportunity, let alone a golden opportunity. Understanding why an anomaly exists can illuminate the contextual variables which might (or might not) align to create an opportunity. In the mid-1990s, for example, Embraer’s managers noticed that airlines often used planes that were far too large for the routes they flew. They interrogated the anomaly by interviewing executives at their top fifty customers. This research revealed that union contracts with pilots restricted the use of smaller planes, which could be flown by less-qualified pilots. Based on this insight into the root causes of the anomaly, Embraer’s executives concluded that these restrictions could not persist as airlines faced increased competitive pressure and potential bankruptcy. Based on their assessment of the anomaly’s sources, Embraer developed a regional jet optimized to the route length.

• What changed in the external environment to give rise to the opportunity? Before declaring an opportunity a company’s main effort, entrepreneurs and managers should ask themselves what changed in the regulatory, market, technical, or social context to generate this opportunity right now. If they cannot point to specific changes, the apparent golden opportunity may be fool’s gold. But a plausible story is not enough. Before declaring the main effort, managers should validate that the relevant windows really are open. BEA’s three co-founders hired two additional employees and spent six month conducting in-depth analysis of trends in customer demand, technology, competition, and venture funding to test their initial hunch that the windows really were open. Then they pounced.

• Is your company under pressure to manufacture a golden opportunity? Too often executives declare an opportunity “golden” for the wrong reasons. Investors may clamor for growth, for example, or a new CEO want to make his mark with a bold move. These internal events might coincide with the emergence a golden opportunity, but don’t bet on it. Wishing for a golden opportunity, unfortunately, doesn’t make one appear.

• Why is the $20 bill still on the ground? An old joke describes two economists walking down the street. The first looks down and exclaims, “There is a $20 bill on the ground.” The other one turns and says, “That’s impossible. If it were there, someone would have picked it up already.” The underlying insight is clear–attractive opportunities will be seized rapidly. Ask yourself, if this really is a golden opportunity why hasn’t someone seized it already? The most compelling answer is that changes in the broader context are just now creating the opportunity and that you are uniquely positioned to spot it before others.

• How quickly will competitors move?
The question is not whether competitors will notice a golden opportunity-they always do-but when they’ll spot it. There are good reasons why worthy rivals might be slow to see and seize an opportunity: an opportunity may fall in a strategic blind spot; rivals may lack incentives because the market is too small or cannibalizes existing business; they may have just committed to an alternative opportunity; lack necessary resources; or be hobbled by financial distress or a major merger. Competitive gaps, like unmet customer demand, are fleeting. A competitor’s management turmoil or strategic myopia might last a year, but probably won’t last forever.

• Can you get big fast? Seizing a golden opportunity requires an organization to effectively scale to fill the gap before competitors rush in or circumstances change. And organizations often go off the rails when faced with the challenges of rapid growth. Executives should standardize key processes, metrics and , resources required to smooth the ride while growing. They should also recognize the binding constraints, or potential bottlenecks that could prevent them from scaling, including the availability of funding, expertise in managing rapid growth, the scalability of relevant technology, or key partners’ ability to keep pace. Even if executives carefully manage the process of scaling, firms will still face unanticipated challenges. The actions managers take during periods of active waiting–such as building a war chest and maintaining pressure for operational efficiency–can hedge against bumps in the road when chasing a golden opportunity.

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Donald Sull is a professor of management practice at the London Business School and a global expert on managing in turbulent markets. His latest book is The Upside of Turbulence: Seizing Opportunity in an Uncertain World, published by HarperBusiness.