A game plan for quantum computing

Thanks to technology advances, some companies may reap real gains from quantum computing within five years. What should you do to prepare for this next big wave in computers?

Here is an excerpt from an outstanding article written by Alexandre Ménard, Ivan Ostojic, Mark Patel, and Daniel Volz for the McKinsey Quarterly, published by McKinsey & Company. To read the complete article, check out others, learn more about the firm, and sign up for email alerts, please click here.

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Thanks to technology advances, some companies may reap real gains from quantum computing within five years. What should you do to prepare for this next big wave in computers?

Pharmaceutical companies have an abiding interest in enzymes. These proteins catalyze all kinds of biochemical interactions, often by targeting a single type of molecule with great precision. Harnessing the power of enzymes may help alleviate the major diseases of our time.Unfortunately, we don’t know the exact molecular structure of most enzymes. In principle, chemists could use computers to model these molecules in order to identify how the molecules work, but enzymes are such complex structures that most are impossible for classical computers to model.A sufficiently powerful quantum computer, however, could accurately predict in a matter of hours the properties, structure, and reactivity of such substances—an advance that could revolutionize drug development and usher in a new era in healthcare. Quantum computers have the potential to resolve problems of this complexity and magnitude across many different industries and applications, including finance, transportation, chemicals, and cybersecurity.Solving the impossible in a few hours of computing time, finding answers to problems that have bedeviled science and society for years, unlocking unprecedented capabilities for businesses of all kinds—those are the promises of quantum computing, a fundamentally different approach to computation.None of this will happen overnight. In fact, many companies and businesses won’t be able to reap significant value from quantum computing for a decade or more, although a few will see gains in the next five years. But the potential is so great, and the technological advances are coming so rapidly, that every business leader should have a basic understanding of how the technology works, the kinds of problems it can help solve, and how she or he should prepare to harness its potential.

How does a quantum computer work?

Quantum computing is a fundamentally different approach to computation compared with the kinds of calculations that we do on today’s laptops, workstations, and mainframes. It won’t replace these devices, but by leveraging the principles of quantum physics it will solve specific, typically very complex problems of a statistical nature that are difficult for current computers.

Qubits versus bits

Classical computers are programmed with bits as data units (zeros and ones). Quantum computers use so-called qubits, which can represent a combination of both zero and one at the same time, based on a principle called superposition.

It’s this difference that gives quantum computers the potential to be exponentially faster than today’s mainframes and servers. Quantum computers can do multiple calculations with multiple inputs simultaneously. Today’s computers can handle only one set of inputs and one calculation at a time. Working with a certain number of qubits—let’s say n for our example—a quantum computer can conduct calculations on up to 2n inputs at once.

That sounds crystal clear. But when you dig into the details of how a quantum computer actually works, you start to understand that many existing challenges must be solved before quantum computers deliver on that potential. (For more, see sidebar, “Quantum computing versus classical computing.”)

Technical obstacles

Some of these obstacles are technical. Qubits, for example, are volatile. Every bit in today’s computers must be in a state of one or zero. A great deal of work goes into ensuring that one bit on a computer chip does not interfere with any other bit on that chip. Qubits, on the other hand, can represent any combination of zero and one. What’s more, they interact with other qubits. In fact, these interactions are what make it possible to conduct multiple calculations at once.

Controlling these interactions, however, is very complicated. The volatility of qubits can cause inputs to be lost or altered, which can throw off the accuracy of results. And creating a computer of meaningful scale would require hundreds of thousands or millions of qubits to be connected coherently. The few quantum computers that exist today can handle nowhere near that number.

Software and hardware companies—ranging from start-ups you’ve never heard of to research institutes to the likes of Google, IBM, and Microsoft—are trying to overcome these obstacles. They’re working on algorithms that bear little resemblance to the ones we use today, hardware that may well wind up looking very different from today’s gray boxes, and software to help translate existing data into a qubit-ready format. But they have a long way to go. Although quantum computing as a concept has been around since the early 1980s, the first real proof that quantum computers can handle problems too complicated for classical computers occurred only in late 2019, when Google announced that its quantum computer had solved such a calculation in just 200 seconds. But this was more of a mathematical exercise than anything that could be applied to business—the problem had no real-world use at all.

Quantum computers will be used for different kinds of problems, incredibly complex ones where eliminating an enormous range of possibilities will save enormous time.

Ranges, rather than answers

The nature of quantum mechanics also presents obstacles to exponential speed gains. Today’s computers operate in a very straightforward fashion: they manipulate a limited set of data with an algorithm and give you an answer. Quantum computers are more complicated. After multiple units of data are input into qubits, the qubits are manipulated to interact with other qubits, allowing for a number of calculations to be done simultaneously. That’s where quantum computers are a lot faster than today’s machines. But those gains are mitigated by the fact that quantum computers don’t deliver one clear answer. Instead, users get a narrowed range of possible answers. In fact, they may find themselves conducting multiple runs of calculations to narrow the range even more, a process that can significantly lessen the speed gains of doing multiple calculations at once.

Getting a range rather than a single answer makes quantum computers sound less precise than today’s computers. That’s true for calculations that are limited in scope, which is one reason quantum computers won’t replace today’s systems. Instead, quantum computers will be used for different kinds of problems, incredibly complex ones in which eliminating an enormous range of possibilities will save an enormous amount of time.

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Alexandre Ménard is a senior partner in McKinsey’s Paris office, Ivan Ostojic is a partner in the Zurich office, Mark Patel is a senior partner in the San Francisco office, and Daniel Volz is a consultant in the Frankfurt office.

The authors wish to thank Maximilian Charlet, Anna Heid, and Lorenzo Pautasso for their contributions to the development of this article, as well as Miklós Dietz, Mathis Friesdorf, Eric Hazan, Nicolaus Henke, Anika Pflanzer, and Henning Soller for their input.

 

 

 

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