Here is an excerpt from an article Written by Michael Chui, Matthias Evers, James Manyika, Alice Zheng, and Travers Nisbet for the McKinsey Quarterly, published by McKinsey & Company. To read the complete article, check out others, learn more about the firm, and sign up for email alerts, please click here.
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Advances in biological science could transform economies and societies, helping to tackle global challenges from climate change to pandemics.
A confluence of advances in biological science and accelerating development of computing, automation, and artificial intelligence is fueling a new wave of innovation. This Bio Revolution could have significant impact on economies and our lives, from health and agriculture to consumer goods, and energy and materials.
Some innovations come with profound risks rooted in the self-sustaining, self-replicating, and interconnected nature of biology that argue for a serious and sustained debate about how this revolution should proceed. Accidents can have major consequences—and, especially if used unethically or maliciously, manipulating biology could become a Pandora’s box that, once opened, unleashes lasting damage to the health of humans, ecosystems, or both. The risks are particularly acute because many of the materials and tools are relatively cheap and accessible. Moreover, tackling these risks is complicated by a multiplicity of jurisdictional and cultural value systems, which makes collaboration and coordination across countries difficult.
However, new biological applications are already improving our response to global challenges including climate change and pandemics. Global responses to the novel coronavirus—SARS-CoV-2—illustrated substantial advances in biological science in just the past few years. The speed with which scientists sequenced the virus’s genome—weeks rather than months—bore witness to the new world of biology described in this research. However, sequencing is just the start: biological innovations are enabling the rapid introduction of clinical trials of vaccines, the search for effective therapies, and a deep investigation of both the origins and the transmission patterns of the virus.
The potential scope and scale of the (direct and indirect) impact of biological innovations appear very substantial. As much as 60 percent of the physical inputs to the global economy could be produced biologically. Around one-third of these inputs are biological materials (such as wood). The remaining two-thirds are not biological materials, but could, in principle, be produced using innovative biological processes (for instance, bioplastics).
A pipeline of about 400 use cases, almost all scientifically feasible today, is already visible. These applications alone could have direct economic impact of up to $4 trillion a year over the next ten to 20 years. More than half of this direct impact could be outside human health in domains such as agriculture and food, consumer products and services, and materials and energy production. Taking into account potential knock-on effects, new applications yet to emerge, and additional scientific breakthroughs, the full potential could be far larger.
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Michael Chui is a partner of the McKinsey Global Institute where James Manyika is co-chairman and a director. Matthias Evers is a senior partner in McKinsey’s Hamburg office. Alice Zheng and Travers Nisbet are consultants based in the Silicon Valley and San Francisco offices, respectively.