Here is a brief excerpt from an article written by David Rennie for The Economist in which he shares his thoughts about how and why the aftershocks of a demagogue’s election will reverberate across America and around the world. To read the complete article, check out others, and obtain subscription information, please click here.
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How much lasting harm have the political tremors that rumbled throughout 2016 left behind them? America in 2017 will have to conduct just such a damage-assessment after the seismic shock of Donald Trump’s victory. Even if President Trump ditches or dilutes his wildest promises, the election of a demagogic, secretive tycoon with globe-spanning business interests will test every check and balance put in place by the Founding Fathers.
As the Trump era begins, the new president’s defenders in the Republican Party will urge calm. Even during the election campaign they offered briefings that this would be a CEO president, who will delegate day-to-day governing to underlings, starting with his conventionally conservative vice-president, Mike Pence, a former Republican congressman and governor.
To cheerleaders on the right, Mr Trump is a salesman in the Reagan mould, with the rhetorical skills to help Republicans navigate these populist times. Forget Mr Trump’s flip-flops on policy, they will say. With Republicans controlling Congress, most governor’s mansions and state legislatures, a golden chance exists to pull the country rightwards. If such boosters are correct the president’s first 100 days will see a flurry of hard-edged conservative policymaking, starting with the signing of executive orders that undercut big planks of Barack Obama’s legacy
Conservatives yearn to see Mr Trump pulling America out of the Paris climate-change agreement signed in 2016, dismantling federal rules that curb coal’s use in power generation, approving new pipelines and opening federal lands to more mining and energy drilling. Some want him to pick a noisy fight with public-sector unions, by making it easier to sack federal officials.
After so many speeches about wall-building, Mr Trump can hardly avoid taking some visible steps to further fortify the border. Should Congress balk at the cost, Trump allies will warn of the electoral doom facing members who sound weak on border security. Though ambitious immigration reform must wait for Congress, the executive branch has a wide degree of latitude to bar entry to those deemed a terrorist threat. Expect Mr Trump to order more foreigners deported when arrested for even minor offences, and to reverse Obama-era executive orders that shield migrants with strong ties in America from deportation.
Congressional Republicans will push for Mr Trump to slash business taxes and offer a cut-rate tax amnesty for corporations willing to bring home foreign earnings. Republican bigwigs will try to limit the impact of Mr Trump’s promises to renegotiate NAFTA, a free-trade pact with Mexico and Canada, prodding him to pick a few fights over “cheating” by trading partners such as Mexico or China, while avoiding a full-scale trade war.
If Trump-boosters are wrong, their hero will be less biddable than they suppose. During the campaign Mr Trump made clear his sighing admiration for President Vladimir Putin of Russia, praising the ex-KGB officer’s “great control over his country”. That reverence for strongmen and America First disdain for universal ideals will be felt in foreign policy. Advisers call Mr Trump an ultra-realist: a man who believes the world is nasty and dangerous and scorns the idea that America has a sacred mission to make it safe. Mr Trump may seek a geopolitical “grand bargain” with Russia, perhaps lifting sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine in exchange for co-operation against Islamist terrorism.
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Here is a direct link to the complete article
David Rennie is the Washington bureau chief and Lexington columnist for The Economist.